30 years ago I was employed as Loans Manager at the Nelson Credit Union. In October, 1991 we experienced the highest interest rates ever. We were quoting mortgage rates of 21.5%, and we would only guarantee that rate for 6 months at a time. As it happened, when the 6 months was over, the rates were on their way down, but we didn’t know that when we loaned the funds.
Just to emphasize the change that has occurred, a payment on a $100,000 mortgage at 21.5%, with a 25 year repayment period (amortization) would cost $1,726.79 per month. That is $17.27/1000
At today’s rates, that same loan would cost $487. per month, over the same 25 year repayment period. That’s $4.87/1000
If you would like to do your own rate calculations, here is a link to the Royal Bank’s mortgage calculator site.
Consumers have now become used to these rates. In Canada we are in a period of great stability in interest rates. The “Bank Rate” set by the Bank of Canada has not changed in more than a year. If current trends continue, it will likely stay at its current low rate for the rest of this year.
There are, of course, variables which could affect this. Inflation is expected to be around 2% for 2012, which is in line with Bank of Canada targets. It would be lower if not for the rising price of oil, which is largely because of uncertainty around the oil supply from Iran, and the renewal of political tension around that country.
The perception is that the European economic crisis is lessening. Hopefully, further bailouts will be unnecessary.
The U.S. economy is also improving, if only slightly. As long as it is trending in a positive direction, this will bode well for continued stable interest rates. In Canada, our economic outlook is also improving, though, again, only marginally. Our net exports to the U.S. has increased, which is a very good sign, especially in the face of a strong Canadian dollar.
So, with low interest rates, a marginally improving economy, better balance of trade statistics, where does that leave the housing industry?
As you have heard me say before, that is going to depend on where you are. Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary are where the “hottest” markets have been. People coming to Canada traditionally arrive in a larger centre. More high paying jobs are found in those places. A continuing strong demand will keep prices high.
Areas like Saskatchewan have found a way to attract people. It’s called “jobs”. Their economy is stronger than much of the rest of the country. They have also had much lower real estate prices for many years. Even today, you can find some real deals in parts of rural Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
There is a positive feeling in our area at this time. Not too many sales occur in the winter months, but we are getting inquiries now, and anticipating a healthy market in the spring. As our markets have been weak for 3 years now, there will likely be a rebound due to some pent-up demand for home ownership. At the moment there is not too much product available for sale, but that should change over the next 6 weeks or so.
I’ll have to make a note to review this post in 6 months, to see if it came true! In the meantime, here is a link to a Japanese TV commercial that I got a great chuckle from. It’s only 30 seconds long. Please check it out here.
Here is a link to the news release that CREA (The Canadian Real Estate Association) issued this week.
Finally, unless you live in Saskatchewan, or the East Shore of Kootenay Lake, make sure you remember to change your clocks, one hour forward, when you go to bed tonight (Saturday).